Consumer demands for better fuel economy coupled with pressure on carmakers to reduce CO2 emissions is likely to result in diesel sales eventually accounting for half of all passenger cars sold in Europe, according to independent automotive technology provider Ricardo Consulting Engineers.
In terms of overall market size, four of the top six markets - France, Germany, Italy and the Benelux countries - continued to experience rapid growth last year achieving record levels of diesel sales. Spain already exceeds 50 per cent diesel penetration. Even the UK, the only European country to buck this trend over the past six years, showed signs of reversing its steady decline.
These are the findings of Ricardo's latest annual diesel report, which concludes that a further increase from the present level of almost one in three sales (up from 14 to 32 per cent penetration over the past 10 years) is likely before the end of the decade.
The independent consultancy, which has pioneered much of the development work in advanced gasoline and diesel engines and monitors market trends on behalf of its many clients, says that improvements in diesel engine performance and driving characteristics are helping to drive the rapid growth of diesel engine sales in Europe.
"The car buyer's choice today is fundamentally an economic one," says the report's author, Martin Love. "Although the near 30 per cent fuel economy and CO2 advantage between diesel and gasoline engines has always existed, the enormous improvements in diesel engine performance and refinement have tipped the balance in recent years and are steering large numbers of the buying public towards the diesel option. Diesel pump prices, which across Europe are on average 16 per cent cheaper than gasoline, merely heighten the financial advantage."
Commenting on the voluntary agreements between carmakers and EU environment ministers to reduce average CO2 emissions for new vehicles to 140g/km by 2008, Mr Love said: "To help meet these targets vehicle manufacturers have increased the attractiveness of the diesel option, further driving diesel sales and penetration."
"Last year we said it would not be surprising to see 40 per cent share over the next 5 to 10 years," added Mr Love. "In view of the recent upward surge and with some major markets already exceeding this level we now see the possibility of diesel taking 50 per cent of sales by the end of the decade."