The first piece of research to show the immediate impact on UK employment prospects of the terrorist attacks in the USA, that took place on 11 September 2001, has been released by Manpower.
Manpower's Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects for the fourth quarter showed that the balance of UK employers expect to take on staff in the period October-December 2001. Much of the research was conducted before the attacks in the US, but subsequent research with a sample of respondents indicated that the tragedy and its immediate aftermath had only a marginal impact on the employment prospects in most companies. Only five per cent of companies re-contacted changed their prediction.
Employment prospects in the engineering sector show marginal growth this quarter with 'net job gains' reported at 11, matching the current manufacturing sector average and compared to 9 in quarter 3 2001. This figure does, however, represent a drop from the same period last year (15) and rates below the current national average (20), placing the engineering sector at 15th out of 19 in the industry league tables.
The initial research asked over 2,000 company board directors, general managers and company secretaries, from 19 sectors in 12 regions, the question: "Do you expect an increase, decrease or no change in the staffing levels at your location in the three months to the end of September 2001?".
30 per cent of companies asked said they were planning to take on more staff, compared to ten per cent who are thinking of cutting the workforce - a 'job gains' balance of 20 (calculated by subtracting the percentage number of companies expecting to decrease staff from the number expecting to increase staff).
This is the same as last quarter, although slightly down from a year ago. Manpower's research - indicating positive employment prospects despite economic difficulties - differs from recent surveys showing that consumer confidence is down. Iain Herbertson, Manpower's managing director, comments: "Despite much talk of slowdown and recession, employers on the ground remain optimistic. UK employers are still expecting to take on more staff in the next quarter."
Commenting on highlights of the survey, Herbertson says: "Overall employment prospects are steady quarter-on-quarter, but down slightly from this time last year. Nevertheless, there are some
worrying signs of weakness. Prospects in the service and manufacturing sectors are slowing. The usual seasonal peak in transport and distribution has not materialised and electronics, telecommunications and finance are also slowing significantly. Regionally, expectations in London have dropped
dramatically".
Employment prospects remain positive throughout the sectors, with expected job gains in the retail sector at their highest level since the previous record set in quarter 4 1987. Utilities are also showing a significant upward trend with prospects at their highest since 1997, from a low this time last year.
Transport and Distribution, where we expect to see a seasonal peak, has shown a worrying decline in employment prospects since quarter two.